This was one hell of an analysis, something most people in the west seem to ignore or don't really understand. Let's see how this shapes up going forward
Thank you, I appreciate that. I am quite interested in following whether the contradictions stay compartmentalized or start spilling across institutions.
You hit the nail. To be honest, I don't follow Pakistan as much, but for a weary eye across the border.
For me it is not about if but when will the fragmented anarchy spills over across everything. The biggest institution is the Military and the civil and political institutions are a shadow of their past and are a convenient facade. The biggest worry is severe economic crisis and social unrest that would completely destroy any existing semblance of order.
Again my view is probably tinted and biased. But fair concerns and who wants to have a failed state across the border
I agree, and I think that distinction matters. Pakistan’s military has historically remained the system’s dominant organizing institution, while much of the population bears the cost of repeated governance failures and strategic overextension. My assessment too is that, if current trajectories persist, the real question becomes less whether severe internal rupture emerges and more when the system runs out of slack to absorb pressure.
Great follow up to Part 1! Pakistan clearly finds itself being pulled in so many different directions, really like how you pointed out the issues they face on their boarder with Iran. There’s never enough analysis on that front :)
Thank you so much, glad you found it useful. The Iran frontier is quite interesting for me too, because it’s simultaneously strategic, sectarian, economic, and logistical - which makes it much harder to isolate from Pakistan’s other pressures.
The road to China is in Pakistan's sphere of interest as well.
Hence, the kinetic ongoings you have noted.
This was one hell of an analysis, something most people in the west seem to ignore or don't really understand. Let's see how this shapes up going forward
Thank you, I appreciate that. I am quite interested in following whether the contradictions stay compartmentalized or start spilling across institutions.
You hit the nail. To be honest, I don't follow Pakistan as much, but for a weary eye across the border.
For me it is not about if but when will the fragmented anarchy spills over across everything. The biggest institution is the Military and the civil and political institutions are a shadow of their past and are a convenient facade. The biggest worry is severe economic crisis and social unrest that would completely destroy any existing semblance of order.
Again my view is probably tinted and biased. But fair concerns and who wants to have a failed state across the border
I agree, and I think that distinction matters. Pakistan’s military has historically remained the system’s dominant organizing institution, while much of the population bears the cost of repeated governance failures and strategic overextension. My assessment too is that, if current trajectories persist, the real question becomes less whether severe internal rupture emerges and more when the system runs out of slack to absorb pressure.
Great follow up to Part 1! Pakistan clearly finds itself being pulled in so many different directions, really like how you pointed out the issues they face on their boarder with Iran. There’s never enough analysis on that front :)
Thank you so much, glad you found it useful. The Iran frontier is quite interesting for me too, because it’s simultaneously strategic, sectarian, economic, and logistical - which makes it much harder to isolate from Pakistan’s other pressures.